A short-lived gas shortfall - a discussion
In the recently published report A short-lived gas shortfall (May 2017), Dylan McConnell and Tim Forcey found that there is a shortage of "cheap" gas, but not a gas supply "shortfall", as claimed by AEMO (March 2017). The University of Melbourne research found that AEMO's forecast shortfall is very small, amounting to no more than around 0.2% of annual supply. The short-term political response at the time, was a call for "more gas supply and gas suppliers" with the federal government declaring certain restrictions could be placed on gas exports. Dylan and Tim found that high gas prices combined with falling renewable and storage costs means that there are cheaper options than developing new gas resources - perhaps we've outgrown gas in the electricity sector?
Dr Dylan McConnell is an energy systems research fellow at the University of Melbourne Climate & Energy College and researcher at the multi-institutional Energy Transition Hub. He has extensive experience in analysing the electricity sector in Australia. Dylan’s work is focused on electricity infrastructure and governance, and the energy transition in liberalised electricity markets. He also specialises in operations research and the optimisation of electricity systems. His work is interdisciplinary and has been published in forums including the Journal of Energy Policy, the Journal of Applied Energy, the Electricity Journal, and the Journal of Environmental Sociology. His work can be found on The Conversation.
Tim Forcey is a chemical engineer and energy researcher with over 35 years experience in the oil, gas and electricity industries in Australia and abroad. Tim has presented on certain impacts of unconventional oil and gas extraction, and on renewable-heat alternatives to gas, at community events and to local councils, parliamentarians and inquiries in New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, Canberra, and Darwin.