Keeping warming to below 1.5C. Possible? And if so, how?

Keeping warming to below 1.5C. Possible? And if so, how?

Tuesday, 26 April 2016 - 10:30am to 11:30am

With the Paris Agreement, the world decided to pursue best efforts to limit warming to below 1.5C, partly because climate impacts around 2C are considered too risky and too high by many. This seminar will put a spotlight on the mitigation side, i.e. how much and how quickly would emissions need to be reduced to still have a chance of keeping or returning warming to below 1.5C relative to pre-industrial levels.

How does a roadmap towards a 1.5C future differ from one for 2C? How big is the task of negative emission technologies, such as biomass and CCS.

In this seminar Joeri Rogelj will present the latest scientific literature on 1.5C emission scenarios, abatement costs, mitigation technologies, and carbon budgets.

After Joeri Rogelj's presentation, Erwin Jackson, Deputy Director of the Climate Institute, will provide a debate contribution in regard to the Paris decision on 1.5C and Australian and international climate policy.

Event Location: 
Seminar room, Lab 14
700 Swanston st
Carlton , VIC
Energy Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Joeri Rogelj is a Research Scholar at the Energy Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), where he works on connecting insights from the geosciences with energy modelling and climate policy. He has published on emission scenarios, carbon budgets, climate change uncertainty, implications of near-term policy choices, and on trade-offs and synergies between air-pollution and climate policies. His current projects focus on connecting the natural sciences to the policy realm, and include the study of extremely low emission scenarios, the simultaneous achievement of multiple sustainability objectives, and the exploration of approaches that can foster integration of knowledge across disciplines.


Joeri holds a PhD in climate science from ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Master's degrees in Engineering and Development Studies from KU Leuven, Belgium. Before joining IIASA, he held research positions at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, Germany) and as a post-doctoral researcher at ETH Zurich. Furthermore, his professional experience includes three years as a project engineer in the field of rural electrification and drinking water systems in Rwanda (Africa), among further stays in Colombia and Denmark.

Additional Information

We link here two of the papers discussed in the seminar.

1. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

by Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Malte Meinshausen, Reto Knutti, Joseph Alcamo, Keywan Riahi1, and William Hare

2. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

Joeri Rogelj, Gunnar Luderer, Robert C. Pietzcker, Elmar Kriegler, Michiel Schaeffer, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi

(Please email Joeri Rogelj, if you would like to obtain a PDF copy).

Web tools and Projects we developed

  • Open-NEM

    The live tracker of the Australian electricity market.

  • Paris Equity Check

    This website is based on a Nature Climate Change study that compares Nationally Determined Contributions with equitable national emissions trajectories in line with the five categories of equity outlined by the IPCC.

  • liveMAGICC Climate Model

    Run one of the most popular reduced-complexity climate carbon cycle models online. Used by IPCC, UNEP GAP reports and numerous scientific publications.

  • NDC & INDC Factsheets

    Check out our analysis of all the post-2020 targets that countries announced under the Paris Agreement.